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What were the main causes of the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) collapse in 1998?
The collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)
Long-Term Capital Management L.P.
Hedge fund founded in 1994, collapsed in 1998
in 1998 was caused by several key factors.
First, LTCM employed an extremely high leverage ratio, borrowing over $124 billion against $4.72 billion of equity, creating a debt-to-equity ratio of more than 25:1.
Second, LTCM's trading strategy relied heavily on convergence trades
Convergence Trading
A strategy that involves betting that the prices of similar financial securities will converge over time.
, based on the assumption that market prices would eventually converge to their theoretical values.
Third, the 1997 Asian financial crisis significantly impacted global markets, while its specific effects on LTCM's portfolio are less documented.
The 1998 Russian financial crisis
Russian Financial Crisis (1998)
Financial crisis when Russia devalued the ruble and defaulted on its domestic debt
when Russia devalued the rubleand defaulted on its domestic debtcaused massive volatility that particularly affected LTCM's positions in certain emerging markets.
Fourth, evidence suggests that major financial institutions became increasingly reluctant to provide additional funding as LTCM's positions deteriorated, though specific institutions' roles in this process remain subject to debate.
Finally, LTCM's over-reliance on mathematical models developed by Nobel Prize-winning economists Robert C. Merton
Robert C. Merton
American economist, Nobel laureate in Economics (1997)
and Myron Scholes
Myron Scholes
Canadian-American economist, Nobel laureate in Economics (1997)
failed to adequately account for liquidity risk and extreme market events.
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